A prediction market works differently from a sportsbook. Instead of betting against a house at odds it sets, you buy a contract from another trader that pays one dollar if an event happens and nothing if it does not, at a price between zero and a dollar that moves with demand. A contract trading at 65 cents is the market saying there is roughly a 65% chance. If you think the real chance is higher you buy, if lower you sell, and you can trade out before the event settles. Because of that structure the platforms are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as exchanges rather than by state gambling regulators, and they are available in states where sports betting is not.
For esports the distinction matters more than for any other sport, because esports betting is restricted or prohibited at licensed sportsbooks in many states. An event contract on a CS2 Major final is listed under federal rules and available to most US adults from 18.
How event contracts work
Each market has two sides, Yes and No, and the prices always add to a dollar. You pay the price of the side you want; if you are right the contract settles at a dollar, if wrong at zero. You can sell your position to another trader at any time before settlement, which is the difference between this and a bet you are locked into. Fees are charged per trade rather than built into the odds, and they are small compared with a sportsbook margin, which is the main reason sharp bettors have moved volume into these platforms.
Liquidity is the catch. A big market, a Major final or a Worlds semi, will have plenty of traders and a tight spread. A tier-two match may have no one on the other side, and the price you see is not one you can get.
How we rank the best prediction markets
Regulation is the entry condition: every platform here lists CFTC-regulated event contracts. Within that, esports coverage is 30% of the score: which events are listed and how far in advance. Liquidity and spread are 25%, measured on the same five esports and five mainstream markets. Fees are 20%. Funding and withdrawal speed are 15%, tested with a bank deposit and withdrawal. The platform itself, app quality and order types, is the last 10%.
Site reviews
1. Kalshi: Best regulated event contracts
Kalshi
- Score
- ★ 5.0/5
- Welcome offer
- Welcome offer to be confirmed
- Min deposit
- tbc
- Payout
- 1–36 hours
Kalshi is the original regulated event-contract exchange and still the one with the most markets, from politics and economics to sports and esports. For prediction markets as a route into esports it is the first account to open: the big CS2, LoL and VALORANT events appear early, the order book is visible, and limit orders let you set your price rather than take the spread. Liquidity on the headline events is good; on smaller esports matches it thins out. Fees are charged per trade and are clearly displayed before you confirm. Funding by bank worked cleanly and withdrawal took under two business days.
Pros
- The deepest market list of any CFTC-regulated exchange
- Esports majors and finals listed in advance
- Limit orders and a clear order book
- Bank funding and withdrawals, typically within two business days (our test is pending)
Cons
- Tier-two esports markets can be thin
- Fees apply per trade on both sides
2. Robinhood (event contracts): Best for Robinhood users
Robinhood (event contracts)
- Score
- ★ 4.8/5
- Welcome offer
- Welcome offer to be confirmed
- Min deposit
- tbc
- Payout
- 1–36 hours
Robinhood lists event contracts alongside stocks and crypto, which makes it the lowest-friction entry if you already use the app: no new account, no new funding. The market list is narrower than Kalshi's and esports coverage is limited to the biggest events. The interface hides the order book, so you take the quoted price rather than setting your own. For a casual position on a Major final it is convenient; for active trading, Kalshi.
Pros
- Trades from the same app and balance as stocks and crypto
- Simple interface for first-time traders
- Instant funding from a Robinhood balance
Cons
- Fewer esports markets than Kalshi
- No full order book view
Crypto.com (event contracts)
- Score
- ★ 4.6/5
- Welcome offer
- Welcome offer to be confirmed
- Min deposit
- tbc
- Payout
- 1–36 hours
Crypto.com's event contracts are the choice if your capital already sits in its exchange. The sports list is growing and esports majors appear, though later and with less depth than Kalshi. Liquidity is building. The app is good on mobile. Its position on this page will move as the market list fills out.
Pros
- Fund from a crypto balance
- Growing sports and esports list
- Mobile-first app
Cons
- Esports coverage behind Kalshi
- Newer offering with less liquidity
4. Polymarket US: Deepest event markets
Polymarket US
- Score
- ★ 4.4/5
- Welcome offer
- Welcome offer to be confirmed
- Min deposit
- tbc
- Payout
- 1–36 hours
Polymarket became the best-known prediction market internationally, and its US-regulated product brings that liquidity to American traders under CFTC rules. On headline events the spreads are the tightest on this page. Esports markets exist for majors and finals, with the same thinning on smaller matches as everywhere. The US product is newer than the international site, so check its availability in your state before you plan around it.
Pros
- Highest trading volumes on major events
- Broad market creation, including esports
- Tight spreads on headline markets
Cons
- US product is newer than the international one; check what is available in your state
- Smaller esports matches thin out quickly
Our top picks compared
| Casino | Score | Best for | Welcome offer | Min deposit | Payout |
|---|
| Kalshi | 5.0/5 | Best regulated event contracts | Welcome offer to be confirmed | tbc | 1–36 hours |
| Robinhood (event contracts) | 4.8/5 | Best for Robinhood users | Welcome offer to be confirmed | tbc | 1–36 hours |
| Crypto.com (event contracts) | 4.6/5 | Best for crypto funding | Welcome offer to be confirmed | tbc | 1–36 hours |
| Polymarket US | 4.4/5 | Deepest event markets | Welcome offer to be confirmed | tbc | 1–36 hours |
Esports on prediction markets
The practical use for an esports bettor is simple: in states where the sportsbooks cannot offer a CS2 or LoL market, the event contract is the regulated route. Prices on majors track the sportsbooks closely because the same people trade both. The edge is in the fees, a fraction of a sportsbook margin, and in being able to exit a position when the map score moves. The limitation is liquidity: stick to the events with a visible order book.
Prediction markets compared
| Platform | Funding | Esports markets | Order book | Best for |
|---|
| Kalshi | Bank, card, crypto | Majors listed early | Visible, limit orders | Active traders |
| Robinhood | Robinhood balance | Biggest events | Hidden | Existing Robinhood users |
| Crypto.com | Crypto balance | Growing | Partial | Crypto holders |
| Polymarket US | Bank and crypto | Majors and finals | Visible | Liquidity on headline events |
How to place a trade
1. Open an account and pass identity checks (18+).
2. Fund it by bank transfer, card or, on some platforms, crypto.
3. Find the market, for example "Will Team Vitality win the Major?"
4. Buy Yes or No at the market price, or place a limit order at your price.
5. Sell before the event to lock in a gain or cut a loss, or hold to settlement at $1 or $0.
Pricing, worked example
A Yes contract on Team A trades at $0.62. You buy 100 contracts for $62. If Team A wins, they settle at $100: a $38 profit before fees. If the price moves to $0.80 after Team A wins the first map, you can sell for $80 without waiting for the result. If Team A loses, the contracts settle at $0 and you lose $62.
| Price | Implied probability | Profit per contract if right |
|---|
| $0.20 | 20% | $0.80 |
| $0.50 | 50% | $0.50 |
| $0.62 | 62% | $0.38 |
| $0.90 | 90% | $0.10 |
Fees and spreads
Platforms charge a trading fee per contract, usually highest for prices near $0.50 and lower near $0 or $1. The spread, the gap between the best buy and sell price, is the other cost: tight on headline events, wide on niche ones. Together they are usually smaller than a sportsbook's margin on the same outcome.
The legal position
Event contracts on these platforms are regulated by the CFTC as a federal matter. Several states have challenged sports event contracts in court and through cease-and-desist letters, arguing they're sports betting under state law, so availability of sports and esports contracts can change. Check each platform's state list.
Taxes
Profits from event contracts are taxable. How they're classified can differ from gambling winnings, so keep records and check with a tax adviser.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
| Feature | Prediction market | Sportsbook |
|---|
| Counterparty | Other traders | The book |
| Pricing | Market price, $0–$1 | Odds set by the book |
| Exit before the result | Sell anytime | Cash out, if offered |
| Cost | Fee plus spread | Margin built into odds |
| Minimum age | 18 | 21 |
| Regulator | CFTC | State |
| Event | Typical markets |
|---|
| CS2 Majors | Tournament winner, final winner, match winners in playoffs |
| League of Legends Worlds | Champion, finalist, match winners |
| VALORANT Champions | Champion, match winners |
| The International (Dota 2) | Champion, match winners |
Markets usually open when the event's bracket is known. Prices move most around group-stage results and map scores; that's when the ability to sell mid-series matters.
Strategies prediction traders use
Trading the news. Roster changes, illness or visa problems move prices before markets fully adjust.
Selling into momentum. If your team wins map one and the price jumps, selling locks profit without carrying the risk of the decider.
Limit orders. Placing a buy below the current price avoids paying the spread.
Avoiding thin markets. If the order book shows little volume, the price you see may not be one you can get.
Risks to understand
- Liquidity: small markets can be hard to exit.
- Rules disputes: read how a market settles (for example, whether a forfeit counts as a loss).
- State challenges: sports and esports contracts may be withdrawn in some states.
- Platform risk: keep only what you're actively trading on any platform.
Responsible trading
Event contracts can feel like investing, but on sports and esports they work like bets: most traders lose after fees over time. Set a budget and stick to it. 1-800-GAMBLER is free and confidential.
If you're in a state with legal sports betting, compare licensed sportsbooks and their current promos; for player props, see DFS apps.
