IEM Cologne Major 2026 Playoffs Preview: Who Are the Favorites?

The Swiss grind is over, the eight playoff teams have booked their seats, and the IEM Cologne Major reaches the LANXESS Arena on June 18. Now the draw has landed, and it looks lopsided in a way that almost guarantees drama. So here is who is most likely to lift the trophy, plus the one quarterfinal that could decide the whole thing early.

Who is the favorite to win the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs?

Team Vitality, comfortably. The apEX-led side are the world number one and back-to-back defending Major champions. Indeed, the prediction markets give them by far the best chance, somewhere around 38 percent. On top of that, they are chasing a third straight Major, which would pull them level with Astralis in the record books.

One word of caution, though. Vitality lost to 9z in Stage 3, the kind of slow start they tend to have. Still, they usually shake it off by the playoffs. But if the jitters linger, the door creaks open.

Who can actually beat them?

Team Spirit are the obvious answer. After all, the reigning Major holders cruised through Stage 3 at a perfect 3-0, and donk has been on a tear. In fact, he took MVP at PGL Astana, where Spirit beat Falcons 3-0 in the final. As a result, markets put them second at roughly 28 percent.

There is a wrinkle that makes this Major spicy. Spirit and Vitality both sit on the same side of the bracket. Therefore they cannot meet in the grand final, only in the semifinal. So if both come through their quarters, that semi is the real final in all but name.

Falcons are the other live threat on that side. Moreover, with Finn “karrigan” Andersen calling the shots, they rank among the handful of teams to beat Vitality in 2026. Of course, the knock on them is a habit of choking on the big stage. Even so, the talent is not in question.

What are the IEM Cologne Major 2026 quarterfinal matchups?

Quarterfinal	Matchup	Favorite
QF1	Aurora vs BetBoom	Toss-up
QF2	Team Spirit vs G2 Esports	Team Spirit
QF3	FURIA vs 9z	FURIA
QF4	Team Vitality vs Team Falcons	Team Vitality

The playoffs run June 18 to 21 at the LANXESS Arena. From there, it is single elimination, every round a best-of-three, before a best-of-five grand final on June 21.

Which quarterfinal should you actually watch?

Vitality against Falcons, no contest. On paper, it is the standout tie of the round. After all, Falcons are one of the few teams to take down Vitality this year, and karrigan against the world number one is exactly the test this roster wants. Yes, Vitality are the favorites. Even so, this is the one with real upset potential.

Meanwhile, the other half of the bracket is wide open. FURIA, 9z, Aurora and BetBoom all sit on that side, which means an underdog reaches a grand-final spot for certain. For neutrals, that is the gift of a lopsided draw. In short, one of the little guys is reaching the final no matter what.

What is left to play for?

A few things to keep in mind before the arena lights come up:

• The prize is huge. The champion takes home 500,000 USD from the Major prize pool, and the trophy comes down to a best-of-five grand final on June 21.
• History is on the line. Indeed, a Vitality win would be a third straight Major and a place next to Astralis as the only teams to manage it.
• The bracket is bottom-heavy. Because Spirit, Vitality and Falcons all sit in one half, the toughest match of the weekend may land before the final.

Ultimately, Vitality are the team to beat. Still, a stacked half and a Spirit side in form mean nothing here is a formality. You can follow every quarterfinal, the bracket and the results on our CS2 tournament hub. Meanwhile, we will keep our coverage current as the arena weekend unfolds.